Best picture is an open race.
Not since 2006, when “Crash” won the top prize over “Brokeback Mountain,” have Oscar prognosticators been so divided over which movie is likely to win. “Zero Dark Thirty” has faded amid controversy. “Lincoln,” with a leading 12 nominations, looked dominant. Then awards started flowing “Argo's” way, including the American Film Institute's movie of the year, best film at the BAFTAs (British Oscars), the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award and the Golden Globe for best drama.