Flu schmoo.
Douglas County numbers suggest that this could be the mildest flu season in about 15 years. The season is far from over, however, and flu still could blow up in the community.
As of early February, the Douglas County Health Department had recorded only 110 flu cases that had been confirmed by lab testing or less reliable rapid tests done in doctors' offices. The last time there were fewer was 1996-97, when the county reported 103 cases for the entire season.
Influenza, caused by viruses, is extremely unpredictable, said Dr. Anne O'Keefe, senior epidemiologist of the local health department. Some seasons it storms in early, some seasons it lumbers in late, sometimes it rages and sometimes it's mild.
"It still could go up," O'Keefe said.
State numbers also confirm that flu season for most has been misery-free. Testing at the Nebraska Public Health Lab on the University of Nebraska Medical Center campus has confirmed 90 cases, down from 221 this time last year, according to the state.
"It is a mild flu season," said Dr. Joann Schaefer, the state's chief medical officer. "I think everybody's afraid to say that because of the jinx."
Schaefer said that while flu cases have been down, many Nebraskans have been sickened by common colds, which are caused by a different type of virus.
Dr. Ann Garvey of the Iowa Department of Public Health said that while Iowa has experienced a relatively mild season for the flu, the state had a slight increase in cases last week.
Iowa doesn't tally lab-confirmed cases, but numerous hospitals and clinics provide flu information to the state so trends can be tracked.
The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that flu activity nationwide is relatively low but increasing.
Seasonal flu activity usually peaks in the United States in January or February, the CDC said. But it can start as early as October and continue into May.
Lab-confirmed cases aren't a precise reflection of how much flu is out there. Some people with the flu don't see a doctor. Some doctors don't do a nasal swab for lab or rapid testing. But the local health department also reported that school absences are relatively low for this time of year, another indication that flu hasn't hit the community hard.
Douglas County's O'Keefe said hand washing, coughing into one's sleeve and staying home when sick, all practices that were emphasized during the H1N1 flu outbreak of 2009, evidently are carrying over.
More people may be getting flu shots, too, she said. Winter weather has been fairly mild so far, and some research indicates that there is a correlation between weather and flu, O'Keefe said.
Iowa's Garvey cautioned that no one should chalk this flu season up as mild.
Garvey said: "It's really just too early to tell."
Contact the writer:
402-444-1123, rick.ruggles@owh.com
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