Chatelain: Bluejays must avoid the late danger zone

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Forget for a moment Creighton's porous defense and shaky shooting. Let's address the elephant in the locker room, the doomsday scenario.

Could Creighton really miss the NCAA tournament?

It's borderline ridiculous to try to answer that question four weeks before Selection Sunday. Hundreds of variables from coast to coast will affect the Jays. But considering Creighton's dreadful play the last week, the issue warrants speculation.

We know the Jays can lock up an NCAA bid by winning the Missouri Valley tournament. But for the sake of at-large discussion, let's assume they lose in St. Louis.

What would it take for Creighton to fall on the wrong side of the bubble on March 11?

Win the last four of the regular season — at Southern Illinois, Long Beach State, Evansville, at Indiana State — and the Bluejays have nothing to worry about. They would be looking at a mid-level seed in the Dance. Maybe an 8-9 game in the first round.

A 3-1 finish to the regular season and Creighton is probably fine, barring a quarterfinal upset in St. Louis. The selection committee would likely hand out a seed in the 10-12 range.

Lose two before St. Louis? That's the danger zone, I say.

It would mean five losses in the last seven regular-season games, not including another defeat in St. Louis. It would mean a 25-8 record (even if CU makes the Valley tournament final). Creighton would still have road wins at San Diego State and Wichita State, but considering the finish, I doubt it would be enough.

Creighton has lost more games the past nine days than it lost in November, December and January combined. The Valley regular-season championship is gone. So is a top-4 seed in the NCAA tournament.

The focus now is March. The Jays can still make a tournament run, but first they need to secure an invitation. Suddenly that's no sure thing.

EIGHT ELITE THOUGHTS ABOUT THE NCAA TOURNAMENT

• I have good news and bad news regarding Omaha's weekend as a tournament host. The good news: Kansas and Missouri are likely on their way to the CenturyLink Center. As high seeds, the selection committee will make sure they're as close to home as possible. It doesn't get any closer than Omaha.

The bad news: If KU and Mizzou earn No. 1 or 2 seeds, their first-round games are probable blowouts. And their second-round games will be against No. 7 or 8 seeds. That's not a recipe for close games. In 2008, Omaha didn't have a single contest decided by single digits.

• Wichita State earned heavy praise nationally for its performance in Omaha. Coupled with an impressive non-conference win over UNLV, the Shockers are looking at a top-4 seed if they win out. They deserve it. Their offensive balance and physical defense are reminiscent of an upper-level Big Ten team.

• ESPN unveiled a new ratings system it says is superior to the RPI. It's called the College Basketball Power Index. It weighs not only wins and losses, but also factors like margin of victory and injured players. That affects a team like Pittsburgh, which slumped midseason without injured guard Tray Woodall. It will be interesting to see if the selection committee, which uses the RPI as a tool, incorporates the BPI in future years.

• I thought Ohio State was on par with Kentucky and Syracuse. Michigan State proved otherwise, holding the Buckeyes to 26 percent shooting on their home floor Saturday. The two heavyweights are now tied at 9-3 in Big Ten play. Don't expect a resolution until March 4, the last day of the regular season. That's when Ohio State goes to East Lansing.

• Kentucky and Syracuse are clear-cut No. 1 seeds. Who grabs the other No. 1s? Contenders include Ohio State, Michigan State, Kansas, Missouri, Duke and North Carolina. That's two from the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC. Based upon conference strength, I say the Big Ten champion and Big 12 champion deserve preference.

• What a miserable week for Perry Jones and Baylor. The future NBA lottery pick was 3 for 20 from the floor against Kansas and Missouri, a big reason the Bears were pummeled twice. Just like that, their Big 12 championship hopes are over. The Bears are 0-4 against KU and Mizzou, and 21-0 against everybody else.

• Nine teams from the Big Ten have a realistic chance for an at-large bid (everybody but Iowa, Penn State and Nebraska). Five are locks — Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin and Indiana. Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois and Northwestern still have work to do. I expect three to get in. It would help Creighton if Northwestern was one of them.

• If Creighton continues to slide, it might take advantage of NCAA tournament expansion. Three years ago, CU won 10 straight to finish the regular season, but lost big in the Valley semifinals. At 26-7, it barely missed the tournament. Three years later, the field is 68 instead of 65. The margin for error is a little bit bigger.

Contact the writer:

402-649-1461, dirk.chatelain@owh.com

twitter.com/dirkchatelain

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