A statewide poll commissioned by the Nebraska Republican Party offers good and bad news for U.S. Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb.
The bad news for Nelson: The senator could find himself the underdog if he decides to run in 2012, according to the poll.
The good: His approval ratings appear to be trending up.
The survey shows Nelson trailing Republican Attorney General Jon Bruning by 15 percentage points in a head-to-head hypothetical match up.
But the GOP poll also found Nelson’s favorable rating at 50 percent — with an unfavorable rating of 43 percent.
His approval rating — in a GOP survey that looked at likely voters and, as such, emphasized Republicans — appears to have increased since January, when an Omaha World-Herald Poll of registered voters found that 42 percent approved of the Democrat shortly after he cast the deciding vote in favor of President Barack Obama’s health-care law.
Nelson, who is considered politically wounded because of that vote, says he is leaning toward a run for re-election, but he has made no formal declarations.
Nelson indicated Tuesday that he was pleased with the poll showing half of Nebraskans, including some Republicans, approved of his job performance.
“Even after they spent millions of dollars in attack ads against health care, their own partisan polling shows Senator Nelson with strong approval ratings,” said Jake Thompson, a Nelson spokesman.
Thompson said Nelson would wait to make a final decision about his political future nearer the 2012 election.
Nelson’s perceived vulnerability is sparking considerable interest among GOP officeholders. So far, only Bruning has declared his candidacy. Other potential contenders include State Treasurer-elect Don Stenberg, U.S. Rep. Jeff Fortenberry of Lincoln and Speaker of the Legislature Mike Flood, though Flood told the Norfolk Daily News he has no interest in the Senate.
The GOP poll was taken Nov. 2-3. It surveyed 499 “likely” voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
The majority of voters included were Republicans, at 56 percent. Only 31 percent were Democrat, while 10 percent identified themselves as independent.
Republicans in Nebraska constitute about 48 percent of registered voters, while 33 percent are Democrats. Registered independents are 19 percent.
Jordan McGrain, executive director of the state GOP, said the heavy concentration of Republican voters in the survey reflects the fact that, generally speaking, Republicans vote at higher rates than Democrats.
In 2008, about 52 percent of those who cast ballots in Nebraska’s general election were Republicans, he said. That same year, Democrats represented 38 percent of those who voted. In 2006 the GOP portion was 56 percent, McGrain said, while Democrats was 34 percent.
McGrain also said the state party included Bruning in its poll because he was the only Republican contender considered a likely candidate at the time.
Contact the writer:
444-1309, robynn.tysver@owh.com
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