Tom Osborne huddled up his coaches and staff at 10:30 a.m. Friday. Chances are, he wasn't there to update them on Memorial Stadium expansion.
Did Osborne call the meeting to calm their fears in the wake of rampant speculation that the Big 12 was breaking apart?
Was Nebraska's athletic director there to tell them to start packing for Madison, Wis.?
“We have regular staff meetings all the time," Associate Athletic Director Marc Boehm said. “He talked about (Big 12 and expansion) a little bit. He didn't really say much."
“He talked about a lot of things, not just that," men's basketball coach Doc Sadler said. “I didn't sense anything different. I can't really say anything."
“No," football coach Bo Pelini said when asked if he was concerned about the state of the Big 12 and NU's fate. “But I don't really know anything. I didn't even know about that (Pac-10) story."
Are these important folks really out of the loop on something that recruits need to know about? Or are they just not talking?
Has Osborne himself not heard from the Big Ten yet? Is it possible the NU brass sits here today uncertain about a future in either conference?
Hard information is a scarce commodity in this maddening story. The rest is speculation, multiple sources and what you believe.
Here's what I believe:
Texas isn't going anywhere. At least, Texas doesn't want to go anywhere. And USC football coach Lane Kiffin won't be pigging out on chili cheese fries at Eskimo Joe's anytime soon.
I believe Texas floated that “six Big 12 teams to the Pac-10” story in order to shake up the Big 12 and, specifically, send a message to Nebraska and Missouri that Texas could leave first and take half the league with it. Shake up NU and MU and get them to rethink their Big 12 commitment.
The timing, during Big 12 meetings and a day before the Pac-10 meetings, was impeccable and most effective. There was a California-type quake down on the Plaza.
Will it work? Depends on what the Big Ten does. But there are two reasons why you should hold off on slamming the panic button.
1. The Pac-10 may expand, and I think that the Pac-10 covets some Big 12 schools, but not these six.
If you think that the governor of Missouri ripped Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, what do you think that they're saying at the coffeehouse in Palo Alto? Hint: it's not, “I could really go for some chicken-fried steak right now."
The Pac-10 has hired a Hollywood agency, the same one that markets Tom Cruise and Will Ferrell, to pump up its image. You see beaches and boats and beautiful Big Sur scenes in their ads. Lubbock and Stillwater will never make the Pac-10's travel brochure.
Austin and Boulder are another story. But the Pac-10 is a distant Plan B for the orangebloods.com crowd. Which leads us to:
2. One thing I've learned in the past month or so after conversations with Texas folks: They really want the Big 12 to work.
Oh sure, there are millions more to be made in a conglomerate conference. But consider: Half the fun of being Texas is, well, being Texas. Strutting around, knowing that you have the power and reminding everyone that you have the power (“We didn't start it, but we'll finish it" was how UT Athletic Director DeLoss Dodds succinctly put it this week). It's fun being king. Texas wouldn't be king anywhere else.
In the SEC, Florida, Alabama and LSU would simply laugh at any attempt at Texas swagger. The Pac-10 beach boys would just yawn. Unlike the Big 12, the Pac-10 has pride and tradition. Those schools would never let UT vote in its own agenda.
No, Texas would have to be a team player in any other conference. No Texas network. No schools waiting on them hand and foot.
Another reason Texas will not go independent: Who would it boss around?
Texas can only have the total package — its own network, king status and double the revenue projected in a new Fox Sports Big 12 deal next year — in the Big 12.
And here's the kicker: The Fox money — which some estimate could make each Big 12 school up to $15 million to $17 million annually — probably depends on Nebraska being part of the package.
So, to maximize all things Texas, the Horns need Nebraska to stay in the Big 12. How's that for irony?
That's not to say that Texas wouldn't bolt for the left coast (Question: Are Texas A&M and TTech required to go with them?). Or, that Texas wouldn't try to make a 10-team Big 12 work. It may be that Dan Beebe's house of cards collapses anyway. An NU commitment to the Big 12 could delay that. You can bet that's what UT wants.
What's Nebraska to do? Hope that Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany picks up the bat phone soon, and remain “committed" to the Big 12 with the understanding that NU could pull a Josh Freeman if and when the time comes.
Maybe Osborne should give the beach boys a call. You never know. The Huskers have a farmer's tan, but their TV profile is still attractive to any league.
Just don't be bluffed in this intense poker game. Texas wants the Big 12 to work, and it wants NU in.
That's my theory, and I'm sticking to it.
Contact the writer:
444-1025, tom.shatel@owh.com
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