Shatel: Watson probably returns in 2010

I feel your pain. I hear your anger. You want Shawn Watson's head on a stick. You want someone to fix the egregious error that is the Nebraska offense and since the Big 12 already granted a wish to Texas, you want Bo Pelini to do the honors.

Sorry. I think Watson will be back next season.

But I don't think he's long for Nebraska, not unless there are major changes to his philosophy or his personnel by next season. Last time I checked, you can fire a coach but not the players. Not all of them, anyway.

(In honor of the Nebraska offense, we changed the title of this column to “Punts and Second Guesses.'' What do you think?)

Before I lay out my case, in fairness, let's start with a few things:

1. This is only Watson's second year of running “his'' offense. That was Gary Barnett's offense at Colorado (Barnett was running backs coach and OC for Bill McCartney) and that was Bill Callahan's offense at Nebraska. Watson was no more in charge of the proceedings than Frank Solich was during the Tom Osborne era.

2. That means Watson was the coordinator last year when Nebraska ranked sixth in the Big 12 in total offense (450.8 yards per game) and scoring offense (35.4 points per game). Don't give Joe Ganz the credit for a good season and stick Watson with the tab for a bad one. That's not fair. Those were Watson's plays last year. Ganz, Nate Swift and Todd Peterson made them work.

3. Pelini may be hopping mad about his offense, but he can look in the mirror, too. Pelini knows everything in the game plan every week. Everything. He doesn't just show up for the game and say, “Gee, I wonder what Wats has planned for us today?''

Watson called a conservative game against Texas. Some of the plays, like Zac Lee running the option, look weird and goofy. The fullback never touches the ball. The tight ends might as well be on the side of a milk carton. But in terms of the game plan, which seemed to be ram into the line and don't turn it over (three interceptions; ah, Watson couldn't resist), that had Pelini's mitts all over it. Pelini is just cocksure enough about his defense to think his best chance to beat Texas was to outplay it on defense, punt and kick field goals and test Texas' defense with a physical run game. Crazy? It came within a second of working.

Now, let's talk about why Watson probably won't be around here very long.

1. Pelini is an “identity'' guy. Look at him. Sweatshirt. Effort. Work ethic. Screaming. Hugging. Passion. Physical football. He's a one-way street, his way or the highway. One identity.

Now look at Watson's offense. It has layers, too many layers for college football, in this simpleton's opinion. There's too much for college kids to think about. Ganz was a master at running it, but he was also in his fifth year and eligible for AARP. College football is all about the kids. The greatest offense in modern history was when Thomas Lott faked to Kenny King and pitched to Billy Sims and he ran 80 yards. Because he was faster than everyone else.

Why isn't Cody Green playing? Because he struggles with all the layers and the progressions and all the bunk. Give the kid the ball and let him do his thing.

Anyway, when I bounced this theory of mine off a Nebraska assistant, his reply was that this offense keeps opposing coaches guessing; they hate preparing for it because the films show Nebraska might do anything on offense in any given week. Hey, as long as they're impressed.

Folks complain about Barney Cotton and the offensive line. They've had their problems. But when they lined up and ran it at people over and over, got in a rhythm, they were pretty good. Not against Texas, but that's Texas. Bottom line: You can't just press a button and power block. It's a habit, a learned behavior over time. Watson's offense doesn't allow for that.

Pelini eventually will tire of this. He'll want an identity. He says he likes the Florida spread, because it's physical, but a big part of that is that Tim Tebow is like a fullback at quarterback. Anyway, Bo will want an offense that can do something well and do it over and over and over. Sweatshirt optional.

2. The personnel to save Watson isn't there. Take the top six teams in the Big 12 (aside from NU) and ask yourself this: How many of Nebraska's starting 11 on offense would start for one of those teams? Roy Helu? Mike McNeill? Would Niles Paul be a second receiver for some? It's a short list.

For a while this year, Watson had two banged-up running backs, a quarterback who couldn't hit a receiver and receivers not adept at running routes or catching. Zac Lee threw Watson a curve. Lee looked good in practice but once Big 12 play started, he was a different guy in games. This offense didn't nudge forward until Helu got healthy, they ran the ball and Lee was given less to do and focused on an occasional deep ball.

Anyway, most of them are back next year. It's hard to imagine the offense being measurably better unless Lee or Green or the offensive line improve dramatically. Any bets on that?

3. Their best chance next season is for Watson to narrow his scope on offense and focus on doing a couple things (power run and play-action). But it's hard to see Watson scrapping a philosophy he has totally bought into. He went to the running game because his quarterback and receivers couldn't execute, but he's on the record as pining for his passing game again.

Bottom line: The personnel excuse doesn't wash; NU should be better than inept, even with these players. The tight ends aren't used. There's no imagination. It's hard to believe an offense with so many layers has so little imagination.

I just know it's time for Pelini to turn his attention to offense. He will. It's only his second year and he spent his time fixing the defense (pretty good job, huh?). He'll find a philosophy, recruit to it and make sure the coordinator is on the same page. Is Watson that guy? I don't see it. When Pelini was hired, Tom Osborne suggested that continuity would be a good thing on offense because it was decent in 2007. But it's 2009 and continuity — at least from this offense — is no longer a good thing.

In other news:

• The Big 12 was quick to point out that it can replay a clock issue if an “egregious error'' has been made. “Egregious'' is Big 12 code for “Texas is losing.''

• My final Heisman ballot: 1. Ndamukong Suh, 2. Mark Ingram, 3. Colt McCoy. This week will change Suh's life. He should win every award he's up for, and I think he'll finish second in the Heisman.

• Funny how there are five undefeated teams and nobody is screaming for a playoff this year. Why? TCU, Cincinnati and Boise State. Fans don't care about the little guy. That's the truth, Mountain West.

Contact the writer:

444-1025, tom.shatel@owh.com

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