Good guesses.

But try this one on for size: Bo's Blackshirts faced the pressure cooker over and over and over — and didn't flinch.

Statistics tell us a lot about football teams, but there's no perfect measure for defense. And sometimes the most telling numbers are hard to locate. This story is based on one unconventional statistic, one simple question:

What happens when an opponent has the ball in Nebraska territory?

The answer is Bo Pelini's secret to winning nine games — and a Big 12 North title. The answer reveals why the Huskers might stand a chance against Colt McCoy and Texas.

What happens when an opponent has the ball in Nebraska territory? What happens when the heat rises and the field gets short and one mistake equals touchdown?

The last 39 times an opponent had possession on Nebraska's half of the field, they scored 40 total points.

Four touchdowns. Four field goals.

That's 39 drives, 31 defensive stops. That's 1.02 points per trip in Husker territory.

That's astounding defense.

How have the Blackshirts managed to stand firm in tough circumstances? Defensive coordinator Carl Pelini has a few theories.

But first consider how Nebraska measures up.

Among the top 10 scoring defenses in the country, only Alabama can match NU in holding offenses on the brink of a score.

The Huskers force far more stops inside their territory than Florida, Penn State, Ohio State, TCU, Texas, LSU, Oklahoma and Air Force.

The gap is even wider between NU and its Big 12 North brethren.

On trips into Husker territory this season, the Blackshirts allow a score only 31 percent of drives — a touchdown only 17 percent.

Kansas is at 67 percent, Kansas State at 65 percent, Missouri at 57 percent, Colorado at 52 percent, Iowa State at 49 percent.

In a game like Nebraska-Oklahoma, where the Sooners' offense crossed midfield 11 times, that statistical edge is the difference between winning 10-3 and losing 34-10.

“We've been in many situations where we've made a play at that last moment,” NU defensive backs coach Marvin Sanders said. “I think our players understand that we can stop it at any point. Just because they've got to the 2-yard line, it doesn't mean it's over.”

Most defenses don't operate that way. Most defenses give up 50, 60, 70 yards and the snowball gets too heavy to stop. Momentum is too strong.

“Instead of panic,” Carl Pelini said, “our guys think, ‘It's no big deal, we've been here before.' You watch our guys, they've been there, done that.”

Scheme is partly responsible for Nebraska's numbers, which fit the old “bend but don't break” cliché.

The Huskers' basic philosophy: prevent the big play.

Most of the time, Nebraska defends with five in the box. Carl Pelini expects his formidable front line and middle linebacker to stop the run. That gives NU more support at the back of the defense.

Thus, the Blackshirts have allowed only four plays of 50 yards or more this season.

“You watch a lot of teams, they'll always have two linebackers, six men in the box,” Pelini said. “I would say we're probably more susceptible to the little plays and we try to prevent the big play from hurting us.”

Nebraska doesn't live and die with three-and-outs. It doesn't mind giving up yards. The result: offenses reach scoring range quite often.

But when they do, NU's defensive backs change their game plan.

“We tighten down,” Husker safety Larry Asante said. “If they're on their own 20, we kind of play loose. But once they start threatening, we get aggressive.”

The whole strategy would fall apart if Nebraska wasn't sound fundamentally. But the Huskers, for the most part, have avoided mistakes — penalties, missed tackles and broken assignments — that plague bad defenses.

“Just force teams to execute in the red zone,” Carl Pelini said. “That's just kind of how we structure ourselves.”

But scheme is just one factor. There's another big one: Comfort with tough conditions.

Let's compare the Huskers to another top defense: Florida.

The Blackshirts have been on the field for 830 snaps, more than any top-25 defense in the country.

Florida's defense, supported by Tim Tebow and a ball-control offense, has played 705 snaps.

Snaps inside the 50: Nebraska, 357. Florida, 261

Drives defended inside the 50: Huskers, 72. Gators, 49.

Yet in those pressure situations, despite 23 more chances to fail, Nebraska has given up the exact same number of scores as Florida: 22.

“A year ago, there would've been a certain sense of panic in those situations,” Carl Pelini said. “I think there's a confidence now.”

You saw it again Friday at Colorado. Nebraska didn't perform to its standards, no way.

But in the second half, after closing NU's lead to 21-14, the Buffs entered Nebraska territory three straight drives.

Three straight times the Huskers held.

Texas, which scored 49 on Texas A&M Thanksgiving night, figures to apply even more pressure.

No way the Blackshirts corral the nation's No. 3 scoring offense. No way Suh and Co. prevent McCoy from orchestrating long drives, collecting first downs, moving closer and closer to paydirt.

But on each drive, there will come a decisive moment, a point at which the defense will stiffen — or back down.

That's when the game begins.

Contact the writer:

649-1461, dirk.chatelain@owh.com