First one to five wins the Big 12 North.
I think that's a pretty safe bet at this point. Get to a 5-3 conference record and you can punch your ticket to Dallas. The question is, is anyone in the North competent enough to do it?
Kansas State, 3-1, has the clearest path: beat Kansas and Missouri at home. The Cats' other two remaining games are at Oklahoma and at Nebraska.
Iowa State (2-2), Kansas (1-2), Nebraska (1-2), Colorado (1-2) and Missouri (0-3) have more work to do. Mizzou must win out.
I think a much more plausible scenario is a two-way or three-way tie at 4-4. And, yes, we have the Big 12 tiebreakers:
If two teams are tied, the head-to-head matchup decides it.
If three are tied, it's decided by the following, in order:
1. The records of the three teams against each other.
2. The division record of each of the three teams.
3. The record of the three teams against the next highest rated division teams (4, 5 and 6).
4. The record of the three teams compared against common Big 12 opponents.
5. The highest ranked team in the BCS poll following the completion of the Big 12 regular-season (and yes, the BCS poll goes as far down as the Big 12 North needs it to).
Here are the remaining schedules of the five teams chasing K-State:
Iowa State: at Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Colorado, at Missouri.
Nebraska: at Baylor, Oklahoma, at Kansas, Kansas State, at Colorado.
Kansas: at Texas Tech, at Kansas State, Nebraska, at Texas, Missouri (at Arrowhead).
Colorado: Missouri, Texas A&M, at Iowa State, at Oklahoma State, Nebraska.
Missouri: at Colorado, Baylor, at Kansas State, Iowa State, Kansas (at Arrowhead).
For Nebraska's purposes, obviously the best path to Dallas is to win four out of the last five. But if the Huskers win three more, it would obviously mean more for those to come against Kansas, K-State and CU for tiebreaker purposes. The loss to ISU hurt, in terms of North Division record.
Enjoy the last month. This is going to be wild.
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