SEARCH
 
LIVE SCOREBOARD
SCHEDULE
LATEST IN THE BLOGS
Pelini: Still work to do
Pelini: Still work to do
5:02 p.m. Coach Bo Pelini said today that his team has handled the short week well, though Thursday's last-minute preparations might be more important than ever. »


McCray's season finished
McCray's season finished
6:05 p.m.: More bad news for the Nebraska basketball team. »


Shatel's Blog: Last date at Rosenblatt set
Shatel's Blog: Last date at Rosenblatt set
Memo to Omaha baseball fans and sentimentalists: mark this down: Thursday night, Sept. 2, 2010. That's the day of the Omaha Royals vs. Round Rock game, the last baseball game to be played in... »


BASKETBALL PREVIEW

The World-Herald's college basketball preview section, "Destination: Unknown," including in-depth analysis of the squads, conference outlooks, players to watch and more.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

The World-Herald's 2009 college football preview, featuring three distinct sections: "Formula for success," "A thinking man's game," and "Finding a new mix."
TWITTER
    follow OWHbigred on Twitter


    FOOTBALL

    How to fix a flat: Why has NU's offense sprung a leak?

    Video: Check out the Big Red Today Show as Husker writers Rich Kaipust, Mitch Sherman and Jon Nyatawa break down the Nebraska-Baylor game:

    We've examined personnel and leadership, attitude and intensity.

    We've focused on play-calling and play-executing.

    Now let's get inside the numbers of Nebraska's struggling offense.

    Stat geeks, this space is devoted to you.

    In 2008, the Huskers ranked 12th nationally in total offense. They accumulated numbers sufficient to win nine games. In 2009, Nebraska's offense has fallen apart against four BCS foes. It has generated six TDs in 16 quarters — and four of those came in 15 minutes at Missouri.

    What has changed in a year? You know the names — Joe Ganz, Nate Swift, Todd Peterson, etc. You know about turnovers — NU already has equaled its giveaways (28) in '08. But we searched deeper. We broke down the details and, in the end, highlighted six critical differences between a season of accomplishment (2008) and a season of frustration (2909).

    FINDING AN EARLY RHYTHM

    In 2008 against BCS competition, Nebraska ran on 61 percent of its first-down snaps.

    In '09, it's 59 percent.

    In '08, first-down rushing plays gained an average of 5.1 yards. In '09, they gain 5.0.

    Only a slight difference.

    But look at passing proficiency on first down.

    In '08, the Huskers picked up 8.2 yards on first-down passing attempts.

    The average in '09? 3.7 yards.

    In '08, the Huskers completed 72 percent on first down against BCS competition.

    This year in the same situation, they connect for 38 percent.

    DEAD END FOR TIGHT ENDS

    In '08, Husker tight ends averaged 48 yards receiving. In '09 against the Sun Belt, the average reached 79 yards.

    But in four games against BCS competition, the tight ends average 13 yards per game.

    In '08, tight end production comprised 17 percent of the passing game. It was 27 percent against three Sun Belt foes in September.

    Against BCS teams this year, tight ends make up 7 percent of receiving yards.

    That's 53 yards in four games.

    GREEN CHUNKS

    Let's define “big” plays as ones that gain 20 yards or more.

    Against BCS competition last year, Nebraska produced 5.3 big plays per game.

    In '09, the average is 3.3 big plays.

    Who does the offense miss most? Nate Swift, who had 12 big plays in 10 games against BCS teams.

    Among this year's wideouts, only Niles Paul has more than one big play, with three.

    CLUTCH THROWS

    Defenses fight hard on first and second down to put quarterbacks in third-and-long.

    But in 2008, when the Huskers had third-and-8 or more, Joe Ganz handled it superbly.

    When he passed, Ganz converted the first down 43 percent of the time. He threw five touchdowns in third-and-long situations against one interception.

    This season, Zac Lee moves the chains 28 percent of the time on third-and-long. He has two touchdown passes and one interception.

    TOUCHDOWN OR BUST

    One of the best indicators of offensive success in college football is red-zone touchdown efficiency.

    Against BCS competition last year, Nebraska scored touchdowns on 67 percent (32 of 48) of its red-zone trips.

    This season against BCS teams, the Huskers are down to 29 percent (5 of 17).

    If NU continues at that rate, it eventually would sink below the nation's worst red-zone offense: Ohio (5-3).

    For the season, Frank Solich's offense scores touchdowns in the red zone at a 36 percent clip.

    TOO MANY PUNTS

    Against BCS teams in 2008, Nebraska finished drives with scores 44 percent of the time.

    On the other hand, the odds of a Husker possession ending without a first down were 23 percent.

    The numbers have nearly flipped.

    In '09, the Huskers score on 24 percent of their possessions against BCS teams.

    The chances of seeing a drive end with a three-and-out or a quick turnover?

    37 percent.

    —Dirk Chatelain

    — Dirk Chatelain




    Copyright ©2009 Omaha World-Herald®. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, displayed or redistributed for any purpose without permission from the Omaha World-Herald.

    15 Comments

    Posted by: kcfan26 on 10/29/09 @ 3:37 am:

    The one area we are equally proficient is 1st down rushing. Hmm... maybe a greater commitment to the running game would be in order considering how futile the passing has been? Perhaps those rushing numbers could improve further if you add the dimension of a strong rushing QB. Just a thought.

    Posted by: Vegas Mike on 10/29/09 @ 5:32 am:

    Outstanding observation....all indications point to the qb not getting the job done and finding the right targets.

    Posted by: mountnmanjim on 10/29/09 @ 7:34 am:

    I am disappointed that you did not mention anything about the offensive line changes. Football is a game that is won in the trenches and lost some very good linemen to graduation.

    Posted by: Jim in LV on 10/29/09 @ 7:38 am:

    Dirk, thanks for the research. I think your article lays it all out in black and white...Combination of a "too cute" playbook to go along with ineffective QB/Rec/RB play. I'm sure Watson would look at putting in Green and adjusting the offensive scheme as "defeat" to his methodology and could hurt his head-coaching prospects, but he needs to swallow his pride and do what's best for the team.

    Posted by: HansJ on 10/29/09 @ 9:05 am:

    Penalties in the red zone have been deadly in 2009. Last year the running game had Lucky, Helu, Castille, even Ganz, plus a better offensive line. But Lee has not thrown pic-6's as Joe G. was prone to do last year. Unfortunately Lee is not the competitor Joe G. was.

    I never thought I'd make it to 2909.

    Posted by: luvbigred on 10/29/09 @ 9:30 am:

    I can't explain 8 turnovers against Iowa State and I don't think anyone can. Aside from that, I for one didn't expect great things from our offense this year. When Wats had an experienced offense like he did last year, at season's end I believe our offense statistically ended up 12th nationally. I don't believe that Wats or our offensive scheme is the culprit for our offensive woes this year. With Lee,we have a new starter at QB. I haven't seen many years in the annals of Husker football where we sat the world on fire on offense with an inexperienced QB. We also have inexperienced receivers and we we need a couple of them too step up and prove they are dependable go too guys that can actually hang onto the ball. That hasn't happened yet. What would have helped out our inexperienced QB and receiver situation this year? A good running game. What happened there? I think the offensive coaches expected we would have a good running game this year too ease our QB and receivers into the passing game. Our "Big back" Castille got kicked off the team just before the season started. That hurt big time. It seems as if our only other RB with experience, Helu has been playing hurt. We lose a talented true freshman Burkhead too injury. It looks like Robinson will be our next Big Back but it will take awhile for him too learn the system and develop. This is only this coaching staffs 2nd year but under the circumstances, I think they are doing a good job. I hope Watson will be here a long time and I think he will prove out to be a good OC. I'm more worried about our offensive line coach than I am him. Oh yes, and I am glad we aren't a one dimensional running team any more.

    Posted by: Steve Stone on 10/29/09 @ 9:43 am:

    Missed one stat: key penalties

    Posted by: texjayster on 10/29/09 @ 9:59 am:

    Nebraska's offense needs to take a play or two from Georgia Techs option attack. It sure
    worked during Osbourne's coaching years. Especially with everybody trying to defend the spread offense's

    Posted by: Hurlo on 10/29/09 @ 3:15 pm:

    Catch the Football when it's thrown to you, hang on to the football when it is in your possession (including fumble recoveries while laying on the ground) throw the long ball sooner and more often, stop relying on the check down to the sideline receivers, receivers run routes like you want to get open, qb throw them the ball once in awhile, Zac Lee runs the football 3 times a game tops (but all must come from breakdown in pass attempts, never from the spread and never from the option...EVER) Use Suh @ fullback in short yardage situations (not as a blocker but as a ball carrier or receiver) DB's get some picks, Crick, you're awesome but you better learn how to grab some cloth soon. BO, be who you are...we love that in you. If people can't take it too bad, they probably don't know anything about football anyway...go ahead and get pissed at anyone who does not live up to your standards, including players, coaches, officials and sports writers who ask the same stupid questions every minute of every day and honestly expect different answers. To be tough...act tough, to be mean...act mean, to win games...act like you know how. NU is less than 7 plays from being undefeated and less than 10 plqys from being 3 and 4. That's what makes college football so fun. So, Bo and gang...go have some fun again and anybody who doesn't agree with how yoiu're doing it...who cares! We want our "Bo" back and please do not let your brother sneak away anytime soon. You saw what happened to your friend Bob @ OU and your brother is worth 10 Watson all day long. Have a great game Saturday...pretty sure you"ll rock!

    Posted by: Mnhusker on 10/29/09 @ 3:27 pm:

    Great insights....wonder if they keep a stat for 'confidence'. Looks like our offense is playing not to lose and I shows in our players confidence.

    Posted by: brow on 10/29/09 @ 3:40 pm:

    how long before Cody Green gets discouraged about not playing and being told one of the least productive quarterbacks in the big twelve is better then he is. Is playing and making mistakes or not playing at all worse for the guys self confidence.

    Posted by: Idahusker on 10/29/09 @ 3:54 pm:

    I'm with you Vegas Mike. Lee's failure to "find the right targets" has been probably my biggest frutration. Yes, the penalties, lack of a consistent running game, and, most recently, turnovers have contributed to offensive struggles, but a failure to hit our outstanding tight ends in big games has been glaring (and extremely frustrating) to me. I've been saying it for three games and I am happy to now have the stats to back it up. If you look at the tight end group, we have a very capable veteran in McNeill. He has the speed and size to make big plays. Then we have a group of younger, very athletic tight ends who have proven they can catch the ball. I love Helu, but he's obviously hurt. Our WR's have had a case of the dropsies. WHY ARE WE NOT UTILIZING ARGUABLY THE MOST TALENT-RICH AND DEEP POSITION ON OFFENSE? I'm open to theories, but mostly I'm just hoping for about 8-10 targets there against Baylor----regardless of who is throwing the ball.

    GO HUSKERS!

    Posted by: nisfor on 10/29/09 @ 3:59 pm:

    I would like to see a stat on drops. Swift and Peterson rarely dropped. We have an unbeleivable number of drops. Not catching as well as catching and then dropping.

    Niles is great and awful. His drop of the swing pass against Texas Tech turned a game that should have been tied into a 14 point deficit. His fumble against Iowa State was one of many that lost the game. Heck even the first run play of the game, Helu's fumble, gave ISU the 3 points needed for victory.

    Nebraska is 2 plays from being 6 - 1 and I think without the TTU 14 point swing might have been 7 - 0.

    Even a slight improvement in holding onto balls, given our defense, would be huge.

    Posted by: markes018 on 10/29/09 @ 7:21 pm:

    texjayster - I agree that the option attack worked well during Osborne's tenure as coach - because he had option QB's to run it. Zac Lee is not an option style QB other than as a change of pace to catch the D napping. He pitches a nice ball when they do run it, but has proven ineffective at pressuring edge defenders into making decisions and equally ineffective at running with the ball when he keeps it.

    Posted by: Coach MO on 10/30/09 @ 5:24 pm:

    oK. Offense managed to get inside the 10 how many times? Inside 20 how many? Turnovers hurt and are not coached and players do not intentionally lose the ball??? How can we blame lack of offense (other than not finishing) on a "lack of offense?"

    Have a thought? Post it here

    Screen Name:
    Comments:

    Please enter the letters as you see them from the picture above before submitting your comment.
    If you have trouble reading the image click here for a new one.
       

    Please note by clicking on "Post" you acknowledge that you have read the Terms of Service and the comment you are posting is in compliance with such terms. Be polite. Inappropriate posts may be removed by the moderator. Send us your feedback.


    RSS Feeds | News Alerts | About Us | Write a Letter to the Editor | Submit a Calendar Event| Order Photos or Reprints

    Questions? Comments? Suggestions? webmaster@omaha.com