Froma Harrop: U.S. cities surging, but for how long?

Why are cities growing faster than the rest of the country? That occurrence reverses a decade-long trend, according to new U.S. Census figures.

Gainers in 2008 included such diverse locations as Chicago, Los Angeles, Columbus, Ohio, and Lincoln, Neb. The Census found that cities losing people, such as Cleveland, were shrinking at a slower rate.

Will this development last? There are two explanations for it. One would suggest a continuation; the other, not.

Under the first, the economic crisis is trapping urban families that otherwise would head for the suburbs. Some can’t sell their current home, and some can’t find jobs in a new place. An economic turnaround would free them up for the move out of town.

But there’s another possible reason — a trend away from the McMansion style and toward the urban amenities of shorter commuting times and downtown bustle. Feeding that theory are the population jumps in close-in suburbs, such as Arlington, Va., right outside Washington, D.C.

Aside from any swelling interest in museums or quirky shops, there are changing demographics. The nation is aging. Older Americans may prefer smaller living quarters, plentiful in urban areas, and having an alternative to driving.

My elderly father lives in a city apartment building with several residents older than 90. (One woman — I do not lie — is 105 and recently went on a bus tour of Philadelphia with her caregiver.) If older people are in decent shape, they can live independently for a long time in an apartment. Cities provide lots of would-be helpers — some professional, some just neighborly.

My father’s building has an elevator, so no one has to negotiate stairs. There are restaurants and groceries within an easy walk. Anyone who has to go some distance can take a bus or get a cab. Meanwhile, restaurants deliver meals. And in the event of a medical emergency, excellent hospitals stand nearby.

For younger Americans, work will play a big part in where they live. You have to wonder whether far-flung suburbs can restore their economies anytime soon, because so many of their jobs were tied to home construction and retail.

“Suburban sprawl may not be dead, but it’s certainly on hiatus,” the Population Reference Bureau’s Mark Mather told The Associated Press.

We shall see. Someday, the dark economic clouds will lift, and people will be able to sell their houses at an acceptable price. Only then will we know the real story behind the surprising Census numbers.

Contact the writer: fharrop@projo.com