Trudy Rubin: Iraq's uncertainties

While Americans are glued to the Iran drama, we've arrived at a critical turning point in Iraq.

The United States has withdrawn its combat troops, with a few exceptions, from Iraqi cities, in accordance with a security agreement with Iraqis signed in November. (All U.S. troops are supposed to be out of Iraq by the end of 2011.)

During my last trip to Iraq, in December, it was hard to imagine that this large-scale shift of men and equipment could be completed in such a short time. However, as Gen. David Petraeus told me in an interview, “The process of removing our combat bases from cities is on track and will meet the deadline.” Quite impressive.

Clearly, many Iraqi players will try to use the pullout to advance their own agendas. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, with an eye toward the January 2010 elections, is calling it a “great victory” against occupation. Others are hoping to restart civil war.

So the big question is, what happens now?

In my phone conversations with several Iraqis, each said the pullback would spur new violence. Many shadowy groups — from al-Qaida fragments to Iranian agents to mafiosi — will test the ability of the Iraqis to take on more of the security burden.

The good news is that spurts of violence are unlikely to rekindle full-scale sectarian warfare. Sunnis have been chastened, and Shiites no longer fear that the old Sunni order will be restored.

Moreover, some U.S. troops (the number hasn't been made public) are staying in cities as trainers and advisers. Teams of advisers partnered with Iraqi units also would remain, Petraeus added, to ensure sharing of intelligence.

If you think this means little has changed, think again. The change is dramatic. The closure of urban U.S. bases and outposts is affecting security in cities, say journalists and other Iraqi sources.

Iraqi army troops and police don't go out on patrol as U.S. forces did, which means they have less contact with the population and get fewer tips about bad guys. This makes it easier for criminals to operate.

In mixed areas, Sunnis still fear that the Shiite-dominated security forces are biased. Even in Sunni Anbar province, where the police are all Sunni and violence has plummeted, the U.S. pullback has been accompanied by an uptick in roadside bombs, maiming locals.

U.S. officials are hoping Iraq's political leaders will tamp down renewed sectarian violence or any flare-ups between Kurds and Arabs in the north. Much will depend on the performance of Prime Minister al-Maliki, who built support by taking credit for the sharp decline in violence.

Yet al-Maliki's sense of his abilities is inflated. His most touted achievement — last year's crackdown on radical Shiite militias in Basra — required U.S. forces to rescue his beleaguered troops.

However — and this may shock many Americans — al-Maliki has garnered popularity (while rousing some opposition) by presenting himself as a strongman who isn't above cracking heads.

Al-Maliki may ride the current violence to become the new strongman, albeit one chosen by ballot. Or Iraqis may turn against him if he cannot restore security and services.

At any rate, Iraq is likely to limp along, making — let's hope — slow progress.

Contact the writer: trubin@phillynews.com